Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now have conducted a new large-scale MRP poll for the Daily Mail. Polling using MRP, which stands for Multi-level Regression and Poststratification, is a relatively recent innovation in polling science which have been used to successfully predict the last two British general elections, and gives the estimated result in each (new) Westminster constituency.
Fieldwork was conducted from 20 May to 27 May 2024, with a sample size of over 10,000 people.
The headline voting intention is:
The headline number of seats predicted to be won by each party is:
The table below gives the prediction in numerical form:
| Party | GE 2019 | Predicted Election Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Seats | Votes from poll | Average of recent national polls | MRP Seats (No TV) | MRP Seats (With TV) | |
| CON | 45% | 376 | 19% | 23% | 72 | 66 |
| LAB | 33% | 197 | 46% | 45% | 493 | 476 |
| LIB | 12% | 8 | 10% | 9% | 39 | 59 |
| Reform | 2% | 0 | 12% | 11% | 0 | 0 |
| Green | 3% | 1 | 8% | 7% | 2 | 2 |
| SNP | 4% | 48 | 3% | 3% | 22 | 26 |
| Plaid | 0% | 2 | 1% | 1% | 4 | 3 |
| OTH | 1% | 0 | 2% | 1% | 0 | 0 |
Note: The MRP seat analysis was calibrated to match the average of recent national polls, to reduce any poll bias and sampling error. "No TV" means without adjustment for tactical voting, and "With TV" includes adjustment for tactical voting.
Our prediction is for Labour landslide with a Labour majority of 336 seats. The Conservatives are set to lose most of their seats, and could have below 100 seats after the election.
Allowing for tactical voting, the Labour majority drops to 302, and the Conservatives are only just ahead of the Lib Dems.
We also have conducted several validation actions and checks to reduce poll bias and sampling error, and to confirm that these seat projections make intuitive sense (see section 4 below).
Our figures indicate a substantial Labour landslide, with Keir Starmer gaining a majority of over 300 seats at Westminster. The Conservatives would have fewer than 100 seats. They would be the official opposition, but they would have less than half of the opposition MPs (72 out of 157).
The forecast Labour victory would be larger than Tony Blair's landslide in 1997 (419 seats) and be the largest win by any party in modern parliamentary history, except for 1931. The 72 seats for the Conservatives would be their worst result since at least 1900.
The Liberal Democrats tend to do better when the Conservatives do badly, and are predicted to win 39 seats. This parliamentary comeback would bring them closer to the seat totals that they enjoyed from 1997 to 2015.
Eighteen Conservative Cabinet Members are likely to lose their seats.
Conservative cabinet members who are likely to keep their seats and might contest the next Conservative leadership contest:
The poll asked voters whether they felt better or worse off financially than twelve months ago, and whether they think they get good or bad value-for-money from the government. The poll also measured support for two of the Conservatives' flagship policies (the Rwanda scheme and plans to increase defence spending to 2.5% of national income by 2030).
The poll asked voters: "Do you think you get good or bad value-for-money from the government?"
| Response | All Voters | CON voters | LAB voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very bad value-for-money | 36% | 21% | 53% |
| Bad value-for-money | 35% | 35% | 34% |
| About fair value-for-money | 13% | 27% | 4% |
| Good value-for-money | 2% | 5% | 0% |
| Very good value-for-money | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Don't Know | 11% | 10% | 6% |
| Net bad or very bad | 71% | 55% | 87% |
| Net good or very good | 3% | 6% | 1% |
Table excludes those who refused to give a response.
Over two-thirds (71%) of voters said they get 'Very Bad' or 'Bad' value-for-money from the government. Meanwhile, just 3% agreed that they get 'Good' or 'Very Good' value-for-money from the government: 6% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and 1% of those who voted Labour in 2019.
Since 87% of Labour voters think they get bad value-for-money from government, they might be thinking of the current Conservative government rather than government in general.
The poll asked voters: "Do you feel better or worse off financially than twelve months ago? "
| Response | All Voters | CON voters | LAB voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Much worse off | 26% | 19% | 32% |
| Slightly worse off | 28% | 27% | 31% |
| About the same | 26% | 33% | 20% |
| Slightly better off | 11% | 14% | 9% |
| Much better off | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Don't know | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Net worse off | 54% | 46% | 64% |
| Net better off | 13% | 16% | 11% |
Table excludes those who refused to give a response.
Over half (54%) of voters said that they feel 'Much worse off' or 'Slightly worse off' than twelve months ago. Just 13% of voters said that they feel better off than this time last year.
Those who voted Labour in 2019 were more likely to say that they feel worse off than twelve months ago (64%) compared to 2019 Conservative voters (46%).
Amongst those who voted Conservative in 2019, the most common response was that they feel 'About the same' financially compared to twelve months ago (33%).
The poll asked voters: "Do you support or oppose the government's plan to send illegal migrants to Rwanda?
| Response | Share | CON voters | LAB voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly oppose | 24% | 5% | 49% |
| Oppose | 12% | 6% | 20% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 13% | 13% | 9% |
| Support | 15% | 25% | 6% |
| Strongly Support | 21% | 42% | 5% |
| Don't know | 12% | 6% | 8% |
| Net support | 36% | 67% | 11% |
| Net oppose | 36% | 11% | 69% |
Table excludes those who refused to give a response.
Amongst all voters, support for the government's plan to send Illegal migrants to Rwanda is split roughly evenly. 36% of voters support the policy, whilst 36% of voters are opposed.
2019 Conservative voters are largely supportive of the Rwanda scheme, with 67% in favour of the policy (42% are strongly supportive, and a further 25% are supportive).
Meanwhile, those who voted Labour in 2019 are largely opposed to the policy. Nearly half (49%) of 2019 Labour voters are strongly opposed, and a further 20% are opposed the government's Rwanda policy.
The poll asked voters: "The government has announced plans to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of national income by 2030. Do you think this is too much, too little, or about right?"
| Response | Share | CON voters | LAB voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Too little | 23% | 38% | 14% |
| About right | 25% | 34% | 23% |
| Too much | 15% | 4% | 24% |
| Don't know | 35% | 22% | 37% |
Table excludes those who refused to give a response.
Amongst all voters, 23% said that increasing defence spending to 2.5% of national income by 2030 would be too little, and 15% said it would be too much. The most common response was 'Don't know' (35%).
Of those who voted Conservative in 2019, 38% said that the planned increase in defence spending is too little, and only 4% said it would be too much.
Meanwhile 14% of 2019 Labour voters said that the planned increase is too little, and 24% said it would be too much.
Our poll also asked people in detail about how likely they might be to vote tactically, and in which direction that might vote tactically.
The main findings are:
There is also confusion among voters about which parties are really likely to win their seat, especially given the new constituency boundaries. Slightly more people look to the implied results of the 2019 election, which is also what some tactical voting sites are recommending. But that could be sub-optimal, since public opinion has changed so much since 2019, and confused tactical voters could cancel each other out.
If tactical voters use that as their guide, the Conservatives could lose another six seats. But the Conservatives could hold eights vulnerable seats, because people are using out-of-date snapshots of who the anti-Conservative challenger party is.
You can read full details of our in-depth tactical voting analysis.
To verify the correctness of the results, we have done several things to cross-check and validate them.
Around 17% of people who voted Conservative in 2019 didn't know or wouldn't say how they planned to vote this time. That's higher than Labour voters (10%).
Our treatment of these voters is to assume that they will vote in the same way as other Conservatives who did express an opinion. We do not assume that they will all not vote. We think this is a reasonable approach.
For comparison, the Labour lead with our assumption is 27%, and the Labour lead with the other assumption (don't knows won't vote) is 28%. So, the difference may not be that large.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said "Our survey shows that Labour's poll lead, which is larger than Tony Blair's in 1997, would mean an even bigger Labour landslide. With less than five weeks to go, Rishi Sunak has to hope that all the polls are overstating Labour's strength, that Labour weakens under the scrutiny of the campaign, and that he can re-attract former supporters who have gone to Reform or plan not to vote."
"Conservative MPs up for re-election might wonder if things would be better for them if they hadn't got rid of Boris Johnson."
Tyron Surmon, Head of Research at Find Out Now, said "These results make for grim reading for the Conservative Party. Our survey suggests Labour going from their worst defeat in almost a century in 2019 to an overwhelming victory, with the Conservatives being reduced to under 100 seats. These numbers may improve slightly if undecided and Reform voters decide to return to the Conservatives. But it seems that polling which has long been negative for the party, has not been improved by the calling of the election campaign"
Find Out Now polled 10,390 GB adults online between 20-27 May 2024. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables are available here, including full list of seats.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. Its pre-poll prediction for the 2019 general election was the most accurate published forecast. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are members of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, local elections and the 2019 European elections.