Lagan Valley: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation
Lagan Valley: Overview
Prediction: DUP
| Implied MP at 2019: | Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) |
| County/Area: | Down (Northern Ireland) |
| Electorate: | 75,827 |
| Implied Turnout 2019: | 60.0% |
| Predicted Turnout: | 60.0% |
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Share | Pred Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 19,682 | 43.3% | 32.6% |
| Alliance | 12,336 | 27.1% | 30.2% |
| UUP | 8,434 | 18.5% | 20.4% |
| SF | 2,101 | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| SDLP | 1,844 | 4.1% | 6.9% |
| OTH | 1,091 | 2.4% | 8.7% |
| Green | 0 | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| DUP Majority | 7,346 | 16.1% | 2.4% LIB Maj |
See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.
| Chance of winning | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| DUP |
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| Alliance |
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| UUP |
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| SF |
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| SDLP |
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| OTH |
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| Green |
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Lagan Valley : Political and Demographic indicators
The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lagan Valley constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.
The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
| Indicator | Seat | Northern Ireland | All UK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Party Winner 2019 | DUP | DUP | CON |
| Party Winner 2017 | DUP | DUP | CON |
| Party Winner 2015 | DUP | DUP | CON |
| EU Leave % | 54% | 44% | 52% |
| British Identity | 43% | 32% | 52% |
| Average Age | 49.7 | 49.3 | 49.5 |
| Good Education | 53% | 48% | 49% |
| Employed | 60% | 56% | 58% |
| Homeowner | 76% | 69% | 63% |
| Car owner | 92% | 87% | 77% |
| Married | 52% | 46% | 45% |
| Ethnic White | 97% | 97% | 83% |
| Christian | 76% | 81% | 50% |
| ABC1 Class | 60% | 51% | 55% |
| Average House Price | £175,987 | £148,402 | £308,942 |
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
| Topic | Cat 1 | Cat 2 | Cat 3 | Cat 4 | Cat 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU Leave % | Very Remain | Remain | Balanced | Leave | Very Leave |
| Census | Very Low | Low | Medium | High | Very High |
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
| Indicator | Census Question | Definition / Included Census Categories |
|---|---|---|
| Party Winner | – | Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus |
| British Identity | National Identity (TS027) | Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British |
| EU Leave % | – | EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate |
| Average Age | Age (TS007A) | Average age of adults (18 years and above) |
| Good Education | Highest level of qualification (TS067) | Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent) |
| Employed | Economic activity status (TS066) | Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed |
| Homeowner | Tenure (TS054) | Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership |
| Car owner | Car or van availability (TS045) | In a household with at least one car or van |
| Married | Legal partnership status (TS002) | Married or civil partnership |
| Ethnic White | Ethnic group (TS021) | White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other |
| Christian | Religion (TS030) | Christian or Christian denomination (NI) |
| ABC1 Class | Approximated Social Grade (SG002) | Approximated social grades A, B and C1 |
| Gross Household Income | – | Median gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling. |
| Deprivation | Households by deprivation dimensions (TS011) | Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating). |
| Average House Price | – | Average residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance |
Lagan Valley: Map
Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors
New seat: Lagan Valley
The new seat of Lagan Valley is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow. Ward winners are modelled on the 'first past the post' system, and do not necessarily reflect a majority vote in each ward. For example, a party may be projected as the 'winner' of a ward with 30% support because the other parties only got 20%-25% each.
| New seat: Lagan Valley | Actual | Predicted | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Ward | Electorate 2017 | Old Seat | GE19 Winner | Pred Winner | |||||||||
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Aghagallon | 3,689 | Upper Bann | DUP | SDLP | |||||||||
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Donaghcloney | 91 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Dromore | 3,305 | Lagan Valley | DUP | Alliance | |||||||||
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Gransha | 2,331 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Magheralin | 3,615 | Upper Bann | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Quilly | 3,148 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ballinderry | 2,788 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ballinderry | 30 | Upper Bann | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ballymacash | 2,344 | Lagan Valley | DUP | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ballymacbrennan | 2,332 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ballymacoss | 3,400 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Blaris | 2,376 | Lagan Valley | DUP | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Dromara | 2,431 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Dromara | 24 | Down South | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Harmony Hill | 2,278 | Lagan Valley | Alliance | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Hilden | 2,455 | Lagan Valley | DUP | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Hillhall | 2,685 | Lagan Valley | DUP | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Hillsborough | 2,658 | Lagan Valley | DUP | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Knockmore | 2,678 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Lagan | 2,486 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Lagan Valley | 2,030 | Lagan Valley | DUP | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Lambeg | 2,469 | Lagan Valley | DUP | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Lisnagarvey | 2,261 | Lagan Valley | DUP | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Maghaberry | 2,960 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Magheralave | 2,738 | Lagan Valley | DUP | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Maze | 2,295 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Moira | 2,641 | Lagan Valley | Alliance | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Old Warren | 2,444 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ravernet | 2,377 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Wallace Park | 2,604 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | White Mountain | 3,864 | Lagan Valley | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Total | 75,827 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||||
And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Lagan Valley if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.