General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 256

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	44.7%	376	21.8%	30	78	187
LAB	33.0%	197	38.8%	312	453	499
LIB	11.8%	8	11.0%	46	67	80
Reform	2.1%	0	16.4%	4	7	83
Green	2.8%	1	6.3%	1	3	5
SNP	4.0%	48	3.1%	7	19	38
PlaidC	0.5%	2	0.6%	2	3	5
Other	1.1%	0	2.1%	0	2	3
DUP		8			7
SF		7			7
SDLP		2			2
UUP		0			1
Alliance		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 28 Jun 2024 to 03 Jul 2024, sampling 31,393 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority

93%

Lab minority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

100%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on Election Day

Posted 4 July 2024

In the last few days, Labour's lead over the Conservatives has narrowed slightly from 20pc down to 17pc. That still gives Labour a massive landslide victory, but puts the Conservatives as the official opposition with more seats than the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives are also in second place in terms of vote share, with about 5pc more support than Reform.

Our prediction is that Labour will form the next government with a big majority.